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Big correction in house prices coming 18 November 2009
The great Australian dream of home ownership is slipping away leaving a major economic and social problem for future governments and the threat of a US-style collapse in home prices, according to a team of Flinders University researchers.In a major analysis the Flinders Institute for Housing, Urban and Regional Research (FIHURR) found that between 1996 and 2006:* overall home ownership edged up only 0.8 per cent;* home ownership fell by 15 per cent over the two decades to 2006 for low income earners over 45 years of age and medium-high income earners under 45 years;* big gains in national income from the resources boom were “wasted’ by increasing house prices and accumulating debt to unreasonable levels; and* the First Home Owners Scheme boosted home purchases for people under 25 years of age but that many lower income earners in the 25-44 age group are unlikely to ever own their own homes because their ‘baby boomer’ parents are spending their inheritances and prices remain highDr Joe Flood said “the writing is on the wall for the ‘Australian dream’.”The researchers found that after 1996 average house prices increased by three times on average – to around 6.8 times medium household income – and debt levels surged.“On the one hand Australia is vulnerable to a collapse like the United States, where prices fell by a half during the sub-prime collapse in those areas where they had boomed, back to an acceptable three times income – or to a long slow decline as in Japan since 1988, which is probably worse as it will mean very large real rent rises in the current tight market,” Dr Flood said.